二氧化硫（SO₂）是一种典型能影响人类身体健康和生态环境的气体。1990 年以来，中国尤其是城市地区一直面临着严重的SO₂ 污染问题。2010 年以来，区域性大气污染问题日益严重，仅考虑单个城市的污染防治政策，难以有效缓解大气污染问题。因此，2010 年国务院发布了联防联控政策，以解决大气污染问题，并强调要加强对SO₂排放的监管。那么，研究联防联控政策对 SO₂ 的影响，对今后环境污染治理政策的制定及 SO2 减排具有重要意义。

      本文致力于研究联防联控政策在 2003-2018 年间对中国 12 个重点城市圈内 116个城市工业 SO₂排放的影响。首先，论文综述了大气污染空间计量、影响因素和联防联控的相关研究文献。其次，梳理了我国联防联控政策的实施现状和工业SO₂排放现状。然后，运用全局莫兰指数和局部莫兰散点图对城市圈内工业 SO₂排放的空间相关性进行检验。进而通过构建空间计量模型，对联防联控政策及其他因素对工业 SO₂排放的影响进行研究，并通过中介效应模型研究联防联控政策影响工业 SO₂ 的传导机制。最后，根据研究结论，提出对策建议。本文主要研究结论如下：

      第一，重点城市圈积极地探索联防联控机制建设；2003-2018 年间，重点城市圈内工业 SO₂ 排放（总量、浓度、人均）呈现出了明显的下降趋势。第二，2003-2018年间，工业SO₂ 排放呈现显著地空间正相关特点。第三，分别以工业 SO₂总量、SO₂浓度及人均工业 SO₂为研究对象时，不同因素对不同被解释变量的影响有所差异。具体地，联防联控政策能有效地促使本地区工业SO₂ 排放减少。结果显示联防联控政策平均可使工业 SO₂总量降低 20526.22 吨、工业 SO₂浓度下降 1.953809 吨/平方公里以及人均工业 SO₂下降 23.77946 吨/万人。人口集聚可以显著地减少本城市工业 SO₂总量、浓度的排放，却对本城市人均工业 SO₂起到了显著地促进作用；经济增长、环保水平使本城市工业 SO₂排放减少；而产业结构使本城市工业SO₂ 排放增加；此外，人口集聚、经济增长、产业结构和环保水平还可以促使周围城市工业 SO₂排放量下降。第四，空间相关性是联防联控政策影响工业 SO₂排放的中介变量，即联防联控政策通过降低城市间的空间相关性进而减少工业SO₂排放。

      根据上述研究结论，本文提出以下对策建议：要深入实行联防联控政策，强化SO₂ 排放控制制度；调整产业结构，加快产业结构升级；提高环保意识，扩大城市绿化；注意人口空间的适度集聚；参考环境库兹涅茨曲线，合理制定经济发展目标等，为政府制定相应的SO₂减排政策提供了决策参考。

As a typical pollutant, sulfur dioxide (SO₂) affects human health, the climate, and environmental and ecological conditions. China has been dealing with severe SO₂ concentrations, particularly in urban areas, since the 1990s. Since 2010, the problem of regional air pollution has become increasingly serious. It is difficult to effectively alleviate the problem of air pollution only considering the pollution control policies of a single city. Therefore, in 2010, the State Council issued the "joint prevention and control" policy to solve the problem of air pollution, and stressed the need to strengthen the supervision of SO₂ emissions. Research on the impact of "joint prevention and control" policy on SO₂ is of great significance to the formulation of environmental pollution control policy and SO₂ emission reduction in the future.

This paper aims to study the impact of "joint prevention and control" policy on SO₂ emissions of 116 cities in 12 key city circle of China from 2003 to 2018. Firstly, the paper reviews the related research literature of air pollution spatial measurement, influencing factors and joint prevention and control. Secondly, the implementation status of "joint prevention and control" policy and industrial SO₂ emission status are summarized. Then, the exploratory spatial data analysis method is used to test the spatial correlation of industrial SO₂ emissions in urban agglomeration. Then, the Global Moran index and local Moran scatter graph are used to test the spatial correlation of industrial SO₂ emissions in urban agglomeration. Proceed to the next step, through the construction of spatial econometric model, this paper studies the impact of "joint prevention and control" policy and other factors on industrial SO₂ emission, and studies the transmission mechanism of "joint prevention and control" policy on industrial SO₂ emission through the mediation effect model. Finally, according to the research conclusions, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. The main conclusions are as follows:

First, the key urban circles are actively exploring the construction of "joint prevention and control" mechanism; therefore, it was found that from 2003 to 2018, industrial SO₂ emissions (total amount, concentration and per capita) in key cities showed a clear downward trend. Second, it is found that industrial SO₂ emissions have significant spatial positive correlation characteristics during 2003-2018. Third, when the total industrial sulfur dioxide, industrial sulfur dioxide concentration, and per capita industrial sulfur dioxide are the research objects, different factors have different effects on different explained variables. The policy of "joint prevention and control" can effectively reduce the industrial SO₂ emission in this area. The results show that this policy decreased SO₂ emissions by 1.894148×104 tons, SO2 intensity by 1.702433 tons per km² , and SO₂ per capita by 158.4914 tons per 10000 people on average. Population agglomeration can significantly reduce the total amount and concentration of industrial SO₂ emissions in the city, but it plays a significant role in promoting the per capita industrial SO₂ emission in the city. The economic growth and environmental protection level make the industrial SO₂ emission of the city reduce. The industrial structure has a significant role in promoting SO₂ emission. In addition, Population agglomeration, economic growth, industrial structure and environmental protection level can also promote the reduction of industrial SO₂ emission in surrounding cities. Fourth, spatial correlation is an intermediary variable for the "joint prevention and control" policy to affect industrial SO₂ emissions. That is, the "joint prevention and control" policy reduces industrial SO₂ emissions by reducing the spatial correlation between cities.

According to the above research conclusions, this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions: Relevant governments must thoroughly implement the "joint prevention and control" policy and strengthen the sulfur dioxide emission control system; adjust the industrial structure and accelerate the upgrading of the industrial structure; pay attention to the moderate agglomeration of the population space; effectively refer to the environmental Kuznets curve, reasonably formulate economic development goals. Provide empirical evidence and decision-making reference for the government to formulate corresponding SO₂ emission reduction policies.

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