近年来，世界范围内公共卫生事件频发，对人民的生命健康和正常生活都产生 了巨大的负面影响。同时，随着科技水平的发展与提升、生产方式的改变与进步， 出行方式的种类也日益丰富，而这在给人类生活带来便捷的同时，也导致突发公共卫生事件的可防可控难度剧增。这类突发事件呈高频次、高破坏性的态势也深刻暴露出政府机构及应急管理部门在应对突发公共卫生事件的决策方式和应急方案的选择上存在多种缺陷和短板，进一步突显出对于科学的应急管理方式的迫切需求。

本文以重大公共卫生突发事件为研究对象，通过对国内外公共卫生突发事件应 急决策相关文献的梳理，凝练出了重大公共卫生突发事件的应急方案选择问题，并 且结合公共卫生突发事件的发展态势和演化机理，提出了基于案例推理的重大公共 卫生突发事件应急方案选择方法。本文主要内容如下：（1）针对公共卫生突发事件 形势变化速度快，发展周期较长等特点提出了基于改进 SEIR 模型预测属性值的方法， 解决了基于现有应急方案选择方法得到的方案相较于现实公共卫生事件的发展具有 滞后性的问题，实现了智能化预测，使得生成的方案更具前瞻性及针对性。（2）将 基于案例的推理转变为基于情景及情节的推理，结合并联系统交叉效率评价模型计 算案例相似度，缩小了案例信息检索的尺度，构建了更加科学的相似度计算融合方 法，从而使得检索结果更加客观、细致、准确。（3）考虑到公共卫生突发事件演化 的多阶段性以及各阶段决策目标的差异性，结合公共卫生突发事件生命周期模型， 建立了公共卫生突发事件应急方案实施效果评价模型，从而通过计算可以得到该阶 段应急处置效果最优的应急方案。（4）构建了公共卫生突发事件应急决策原型系统， 验证了上述方法的可行性及有效性。

本文提出的方法提高了重大公共卫生突发事件的应急处置能力，解决了现有应急决策方法无法快速生成准确、有效的应急方案这一问题。通过该模型选择有效的 应急方案，可以在一定程度上提高决策准确度，更好地发挥应急效果，并且能够提升决策速度、为应急处置节省宝贵的时间。综上所述，该方法为现实情况下公共卫 生突发事件的应急方案选择提供了可靠的现实依据，同时为其他类似的公共突发事 件的应急决策提供了相应参考。

In recent years, the frequency of public health emergencies in the world has increased sharply, which has caused a huge negative impact on people's life, health, and normal life. With the development and advancement of technology, there are more and more ways for humans to travel in daily life. While this has brought convenience to human life, it has also made it more difficult to prevent and control public health emergencies. Such emergencies are characterized by high frequency and high destructiveness. This also profoundly exposes the multiple shortcomings in the way we make decisions on emergency response and the choice of emergency reference plans, further highlighting the urgent need for a scientific approach to emergency management.

This paper takes the emergency decision-making problem of public health emergencies as the research object and refines the decision-making problem of emergency plan selection for major public health emergencies by combing the relevant literature in this field. Therefore, this paper proposes a selection approach of the emergency reference plan for major public health emergencies with case-based reasoning, considering the developmental dynamics and evolutionary mechanisms of public health emergencies. The main points of this article are as follows: firstly, a method for predicting some attribute values based on the modified SEIR model is proposed according to the characteristics of public health emergencies, such as fastchanging speed and long development period. This method solves the problem that existing methods for generating emergency plans have a lag compared with the development of actual events, thereby realizing intelligent prediction and making the generated solution more forward-looking and pertinent. Secondly, through the cross-efficiency evaluation model of the parallel system, the similarity calculation based on case reasoning is transformed into the calculation based on the scenario and plot. In this way, the scale of case information retrieval is reduced, and a more scientific similarity calculation fusion method is constructed, so that the retrieval results are more objective, detailed and accurate. Then, considering the multistage evolution of public health emergencies and the differences in decision-making objectives at each stage, we establish a multi-stage emergency effect evaluation model combined with the public health emergency life cycle model to select the most effective alternative for reference. Finally, a prototype system for emergency decision-making in 西安电子科技大学硕士学位论文 IV public health emergencies is constructed to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the above method.

The method proposed in this paper improves the emergency response to major public health emergencies and solves the problem that existing emergency decision-making methods cannot quickly generate accurate and effective emergency plans. This method could improve the accuracy and efficiency of decision-making, maximize the effectiveness of the emergency plan and save precious time for emergency response. And this provides a reliable basis for the selection of emergency response plans for public health emergencies in real-life situations, and provides a corresponding reference for decision-making for other similar public health emergencies, so it has practical applied value.

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