南海既是我国南部最大的陆缘海，也是唯一的热带海洋，海域面积约356万平方公里，资源种类繁多，生物多样性丰富，其中鱼类资源超过25,000种，年捕捞量可达700万t. 然而近年来，南海近海过度捕捞现象严重，渔业资源逐渐衰退. 为有效遏制该现象，响应国家开展限额捕捞制度的政策需求，对海洋鱼类资源进行评估管理已成为渔业资源领域研究的重中之重. 鸢乌贼是一种大洋头足类，在南海外海资源储量丰富，通过北斗信息采集系统估算南海鸢乌贼资源量达到204.94万t，可捕量达99.40万t，具有巨大的开发潜力. 为保证南海鸢乌贼资源长久可持续发展，科学开展南海鸢乌贼资源评估与可捕量分析至关重要. 本文的研究海域8°N~12°N，108°E~116°E，时间跨度为2013-2019年，主要研究结果如下：

（1）本文使用2013-2019年南海外海鸢乌贼生产数据，首先采用广义可加模型对鸢乌贼的单位捕捞努力量渔获量(Catch Per Unit Effort, CPUE)进行标准化处理，对鸢乌贼CPUE与时空间因子(月份、纬度和经度)、海洋环境因子(海表面温度、海表面叶绿素a浓度、海表面风速和海表面高度)的关系进行分析讨论. 结果表明，鸢乌贼CPUE集中分布在海表面叶绿素a浓度0.09~0.13 mg·m^-3，海表面温度27~29 ℃，海表面风速4.5~7. 0 m·s^-1，海表面高度0.6~0.75m的范围内.

（2）本文通过数值分析中Simpson公式和Fourier级数对普通灰色模型做背景值改造及残差做修正，建立优化灰色GM(1,N)模型，以提高南海鸢乌贼CPUE的预测精度. 结果表明，对鸢乌贼CPUE的预测中，优化灰色GM(1,N)模型将平均相对误差由7.78%降低至2.54%；在对2019年鸢乌贼CPUE预测中，优化灰色GM(1,N)模型将相对误差由4.79%降至1.87%. 这为准确预测鸢乌贼资源相对丰度提供了一个新思路.

（3）本文以Schaefer剩余产量模型作为资源评估的主要模型，首先结合贝叶斯方法，分均匀分布方案和正态分布方案对南海鸢乌贼资源量进行评估；其次以收获率为指标，建立南海鸢乌贼管理指标体系，并讨论了相应的管理策略. 结果表明在两种方案下，2013-2019年南海鸢乌贼资源处于可持续发展状态，不存在过度捕捞的现象. 此时均匀分布方案下，最大的可持续产量为47.497万t，资源量为93.755万t；在正态分布方案下，最大可持续产量为41.059万t，资源量为87.499万t. 通过进行管理策略风险分析发现，将收获率维持在0.4的水平下，管理期结束时将取得种群资源量与捕捞量间的最佳平衡. 此时均匀分布方案下，捕捞量达到43.936万t；在正态分布方案下，捕捞量达到35.833万t. 且均不会出现过度捕捞、资源崩溃的情况.

The South China Sea is not only the largest land-margin sea in southern China, but also the only tropical sea. The sea area is about 3.56 million square kilometers, with a wide variety of resources and rich biodiversity. Among them, there are more than 25,000 fish resources and an annual catch of up to 7 million tons. However, in recent years, the phenomenon of overfishing in the coastal waters of the South China Sea has been serious, and fishery resources have gradually declined. In order to effectively curb this phenomenon, in response to the country’s policy needs to implement a fishing quota system, the evaluation and management of marine fish resources has become the focus of research in the field of fishery resources. Sthenoteuthis Oualaniensis is a kind of oceanic cephalopod. It has abundant resources in the South China Sea. According to the Beidou information collection system, the resource of Squid in the South China Sea is estimated to reach 2,049,400 tons, with a catchable amount of 994,000 tons, which has huge development potential. In order to ensure the long-term sustainable development of the Squid resources in the South China Sea, scientific evaluation of the resources of Squid Squid in the South China Sea and the analysis of its catchable capacity are important. The research area in this paper is 8°N~12°N，108°E~116°E, and the time span For 2013-2019, the main research results are as follows:

(1) This article uses the production data of Squid from South China Sea from 2013 to 2019. First, the generalized additive model is used to standardize the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of Squid. The relationship between CPUE and time and space factors (month, latitude and longitude), marine environmental factors (sea surface temperature, sea surface chlorophyll a concentration, sea surface wind speed and sea surface height) is analyzed and discussed. The sea surface chlorophyll a concentration is 0.09~0.13 mg·m^-3, the sea surface temperature is 27~29℃, the sea surface wind speed is 4.5~7.0 m·s^-1, and the sea surface height is within the range of 0.6~0.75m.

(2) This paper uses the Simpson formula and Fourier series in the numerical analysis to modify the background value of the ordinary gray model and correct the residuals, and establish an optimized gray GM(1,N) model to improve the prediction accuracy of the CPUE of the southern sea squid. Results. It shows that in the prediction of the CPUE of the squid, the optimized gray GM(1,N) model reduces the average relative error from 7.78% to 2.54%; in the prediction of the CPUE of the squid in 2019, the gray GM(1,N) model is optimized The relative error is reduced from 4.79% to 1.87%. This provides a new idea for accurately predicting the relative abundance of the squid resource.

(3) This paper uses the Schaefer residual yield model as the main resource assessment model. First, combined with Bayesian methods, the resources of the Squid Squid in the South China Sea are evaluated by the uniform distribution scheme and the normal distribution scheme; secondly, the harvest rate is used as an indicator to establish the South China Sea The management index system of Squid Squid and corresponding management strategies were discussed. The results show that under the two scenarios, Squid resources in the South China Sea are in a sustainable development state from 2013 to 2019, and there is no phenomenon of overfishing. At this time, under the even distribution plan, The maximum sustainable output is 474,700 tons, and the resource amount is 937,550 tons; under the normal distribution scheme, the maximum sustainable output is 410,590 tons, and the resource amount is 874,900 tons. Through the risk analysis of the management strategy, it is found that the harvest will be harvested. The rate is maintained at 0.4. At the end of the management period, the best balance between the stock resources and the catch will be achieved. At this time, under the uniform distribution plan, the catch will reach 439,360 tons; under the normal distribution plan, the catch will reach 358,300 tons, and there will be no overfishing or resource collapse.

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