工业化助力全球经济实现了跨越式发展，却也催生出一系列气候环境问题，如何达成工业发展与减污降碳的双赢，已成为全球命运共同体所面临的时代难题。为遏制环境质量恶化趋势，我国积极推进低碳发展与生态文明建设，而提升碳排放绩效不仅是衡量低碳发展的关键指标，更是推动高质量发展的核心要素。与此同时，数字经济作为第四次工业革命的钥匙，不仅从多个维度对生产和消费方式等一系列社会形态进行升级和重塑，还可以通过促进绿色技术创新赋能高质量发展和低碳经济转型，但数字经济相关政策的制定和实施能否有效控制碳排放，依然受到质疑。因此，在国家大力推进数字化和低碳化协同发展的政策背景下，解决数字经济与碳减排的悖论问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。
基于此，本文首先梳理了数字经济和碳排放绩效的相关文献，在数字经济和低碳发展核心理论的基础之上，尝试厘清数字经济对碳排放绩效的影响机理，并有针对性地提出研究假设。其次，运用改进的熵值法测算我国数字经济综合指数和四个分项指数，运用包含非期望产出的超效率SBM模型结合GML指数测算碳排放绩效指数和两个分解指数，并剖析数字经济与碳排放绩效的发展现状与演变特征。再次，利用固定效应模型和中介效应模型验证数字经济对碳排放绩效的影响效应、作用机制和传导途径，并分析结构性效应特征和区域异质性特征。最后，以现状分析和实证检验结果为遵循，提出相应的政策建议。
本文研究结果表明：第一，在数字经济方面，我国数字经济发展水平呈现逐年上升趋势，存在内部结构发展差异和区域发展差异，在碳排放绩效方面，我国碳排放绩效水平表现出波动上升的演变趋势，存在内在因素演变差异和区域演变差异。第二，数字经济可以促进碳排放绩效提升，且此直接效应存在结构性效应特征和区域异质性特征，其中数字产业发展指数对碳排放绩效的赋能作用最强，是形成区域非均衡特征的主要原因。第三，低碳技术效率和低碳技术进步是发挥数字经济提升碳排放绩效作用的重要内在机制，且此作用的有效发挥具有区域差异特征，能源结构和经济增长是此激励作用的重要传导路径，且二者相比，经济增长的中介作用更强。
根据以上研究结论，并结合我国国情，本文提出如下政策建议：（1）加强数字设施建设，提高低碳经济发展效率。（2）促进科技创新集群，打造绿色经济新增长点。（3）构筑均衡发展格局，因地制宜设计战略规划。
 

Industrialization has helped the global economy achieve leapfrog development, but it has also given rise to a series of climate and environmental problems. How to achieve a win-win situation between industrial development and carbon reduction has become a difficult problem facing the global community with a shared future. In order to curb the deterioration of environmental quality, China is actively promoting low-carbon development and ecological civilization construction, and improving carbon emission performance is not only a key indicator to measure low-carbon development, but also a core element to promote high-quality development. At the same time, digital economy, as the key to the fourth industrial revolution, not only upgrades and reshapes a series of social forms such as production and consumption modes from multiple dimensions, but also enables high-quality development and low-carbon economic transformation by promoting green technology innovation. However, whether the formulation and implementation of policies related to digital economy can effectively control carbon emissions remains questionable. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to solve the paradox between digital economy and carbon emission reduction under the policy background of vigorously promoting the coordinated development of digitalization and low-carbon.

 

Based on this, this paper first reviews the relevant literature on digital economy and carbon emission performance. Based on the core theories of the digital economy and low-carbon development, it attempts to clarify the mechanism of the impact of the digital economy on carbon emissions performance, and proposes targeted research hypotheses. Secondly, using the improved entropy method to calculate the comprehensive index and four sub-indexes of China's digital economy, using the super-efficiency model including unexpected outputs combined with the index to calculate the carbon emissions performance index and two decomposition indexes, and analyzing the development status and evolution characteristics of the digital economy and carbon emissions performance. Thirdly, this article uses fixed effect models and intermediary effect models to verify the impact, mechanism, and transmission path of the digital economy on carbon emissions performance, and analyzes the characteristics of structural effects and regional heterogeneity. Finally, based on the current situation analysis and empirical test results, this article proposes corresponding policy recommendations.

 

The results of this paper show that: First, in terms of the digital economy, the development level of China's digital economy has shown an upward trend year by year, with internal structural development differences and regional development differences. In terms of carbon emissions performance, China's carbon emissions performance level has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with internal factor evolution differences and regional evolution differences. Secondly, the digital economy can promote the improvement of carbon emissions performance, and this direct effect has structural effect characteristics and regional heterogeneity characteristics. Among them, the digital industry development index has the strongest enabling effect on carbon emissions performance, which is the main reason for forming regional unbalanced characteristics. Third, low-carbon technology efficiency and low carbon technology progress are important internal mechanisms to play the role of the digital economy in improving carbon emissions performance, and the effective play of this role has regional differences. Energy structure and economic development are important transmission paths for this incentive effect, and compared to the two, economic growth has a stronger intermediary role.

 

Based on the above research conclusions and national conditions, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: (1) Strengthen the construction of digital infrastructure and improve the efficiency of low-carbon economy development. (2) Promoting scientific and technological innovation clusters and creating new growth points for green economy. (3) Build a balanced development pattern and design strategic plans according to local conditions.

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